Insanity, end of the world, etc.

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Velokid1
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Re: Insanity, end of the world, etc.

Post by Velokid1 » Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:15 am

hippiewannabe wrote: It's a separate but related discussion that the billion people lifted out of poverty in recent years did not achieve it though sacrifice, sympathy, equality and socialism. They owe it to free markets, globablization and competition.
I'm interested in this. Where do you get that notion?

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LiveonJG
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Re: Insanity, end of the world, etc.

Post by LiveonJG » Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:28 pm

Velokid1 wrote:
hippiewannabe wrote: It's a separate but related discussion that the billion people lifted out of poverty in recent years did not achieve it though sacrifice, sympathy, equality and socialism. They owe it to free markets, globablization and competition.
I'm interested in this. Where do you get that notion?
Check out Thomas Friedman's book The World is Flat. It's the same rosy blow sunshine up your butt stuff. The bottom line is the theory is flawed, and for the same reasons hippiewannabe's arguments are flawed. The world is not flat and globalization is a terrible consequence of corporate interests allowed to feast on the world's cheapest labor markets. Add in the insatiable desire the average American has for cheap crap and here we are.

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Velokid1
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Post by Velokid1 » Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:58 pm


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hippiewannabe
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Re: Insanity, end of the world, etc.

Post by hippiewannabe » Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:22 pm

LiveonJG wrote:...The world is not flat and globalization is a terrible consequence of corporate interests allowed to feast on the world's cheapest labor markets. Add in the insatiable desire the average American has for cheap crap and here we are....
And what gives you the right to tell those 250 million middle class Indians they need to go back to living in poverty? God did not decide that Americans deserve a nice living, and nobody else gets to strive for what we have. I hope you at least try to find Made in USA products, and pay more for them, as I do.

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Post by DjEep » Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:16 pm

How about we spread birth control, instead of capitalism?
"Live life, love life. Enjoy the pleasures and the sorrows. For it is the bleak valleys, the dark corners that make the peaks all the more magnificent. And once you realize that, you begin to see the beauty hidden within those valleys, and learn to love the climb." - Anonymous

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LiveonJG
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Re: Insanity, end of the world, etc.

Post by LiveonJG » Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:37 pm

hippiewannabe wrote:And what gives you the right to tell those 250 million middle class Indians they need to go back to living in poverty? God did not decide that Americans deserve a nice living, and nobody else gets to strive for what we have. I hope you at least try to find Made in USA products, and pay more for them, as I do.
When exactly did I say that? The economic policies since the Reagan Administration have been a disaster for the American working class. It's nothing short of all out war against the middle class. Reagan started it with the essential elimination of the Sherman Anti Trust Act. Let's not forget the attack on trade unions with the busting of the Air Traffic Controller's strike. So far, that has proven to be the beginning of the end for the American Unionized Worker. The rescinding of tariffs, that for 200 years allowed this country's industry to not only grow and prosper, but elevated the United States to the status of greatest industrialized power in the world, basically killed American industry. That's why now you and I have to wade through mountains of cheap crap looking for something with a Made in U.S.A. label. I have no problem, in fact I'm a strong proponent of the dissipation of global poverty. I, unlike Mr. Friedman, and those who share his warped belief, do not want to see it happen as the result of gutting our economy. Look at today's slide in the Dow and tell me how great this economy is.
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LiveonJG
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Post by LiveonJG » Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:44 pm

BTW, hippiewannabe welcome to the forum. A new perspective is always appreciated.

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Post by LiveonJG » Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:48 pm

Image

If it weren't for the gold lame', that could be me first thing in the morning.
:joker:

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Post by DjEep » Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:49 pm

Yes, welcome! Feel free to intellectually eviscerate me.
"Live life, love life. Enjoy the pleasures and the sorrows. For it is the bleak valleys, the dark corners that make the peaks all the more magnificent. And once you realize that, you begin to see the beauty hidden within those valleys, and learn to love the climb." - Anonymous

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hippiewannabe
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Re: Insanity, end of the world, etc.

Post by hippiewannabe » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:59 pm

I don't want to derail the other thread, but being a student of economics and the energy industry, I'm compelled to respond to this:
Spezialist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:11 pm
Here's a thought, Oil production peaked 2013, current estimates are this, we don't have enough oils of any kind to further global warming.
Looks like we don't have a dedicated Peak Oil thread, but this one leans heavily in that direction, so we'll use it. I understand you were trying to make a point about exponential growth, but in this case, it simply doesn't apply. The entire premise of Peak Oil was bogus. Not just with the benefit of hindsight today, but from an economic analysis standpoint 12 years ago in this thread, and 14 years ago here:
https://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewt ... c&start=60

Here is the actual trend:

World Production
........................................................2001........2013.......2015........2017.......2019

Total petroleum and other liquids (Mb/d).....77673......91686.....97104.......98114......100631

https://www.eia.gov/

Nobody predicted the shale boom, but even without that, the trend was never going to be continuous exponential growth, followed by falling off a cliff. The direct correlation between economic growth and oil usage was broken long ago, and the basics of supply and demand mean the production curve would eventually flatten out, and gradually decline. Government regulation and consumer behavior could mean that a lot of hydrocarbons will be left in the ground, but there is still more available than has been used to date. Best estimates are the world has consumed 1.1 trillion to 1.5 trillion barrels, and there are 1.7 trillion barrels left. So yeah, we could further global warming by a lot, and we're not going to run out any time soon. .
Truth is like poetry.
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weisswurst
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Re: Insanity, end of the world, etc.

Post by weisswurst » Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:03 am

History shows again and again
How nature points out the folly of man...

sorry to quote BOC but it's seems fitting and it's been running over and over in my mind (and I haven't even heard that tune in a long while)
"I drink, therefore yes ma'am..."

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Re: Insanity, end of the world, etc.

Post by Spezialist » Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:50 pm

Boy oh Boy, got to go get some of the last Ben and Jerry’s before the end.
Okay I’ll bite, started reading from the top, finish the first post and got the idea of looking at starting date, then flipped to back.
Oops I had posted in this, and was just quoted.
I’m game, let me re-read thread and click some links. I’m up for it.
One question before I actually comment on the recent post.
If we have enough oil, why was shale produced in the first place?
Oh that’s right we ran out of the other stuff. And now the great fracking shithole is going bank ruptured.
I hope the OP is okay with the current situation.
Sure there’s some oil, but it’s like getting the valuables out of the titanic and fighting the Deep Water Horizon simultaneously.

quote; Hippiewannabe,"And if Peak Oil or whatever knocks a few points of GDP, we'll still be fine."
and there from 13 years ago, is the tell. on page three of this thread.
the fact that this thread was right before the 08 collapse because of oil prices, isn't lost on me.
maybe we should move the discussion to a conspiracy thread with the current issues in the news, after all https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization can create oil from garbage, and other human waste, about two corpses will make a barrel of oil.
anyways,,
why use oil to waste it? I can be the worst kind of capitalist on paper after all.
Hubbad wasn't wrong, he was used to predict something they had already feared, then money went into solving the problem, and solve it they did, and created more dirty world in the process. So that is what we ecologists come to expect, no count on. capitalism has no heart, and defiantly no conservatism at all. "if we make money and problems arise, we stand a good chance to make more money because we knew the problem was going to arise before anyone else did.
i used to have a tee shirt titled "end of the world tour"
much has been written all over about this, and the issue hasn't changed. its only gotten worse. its like they are literally propping up the crumbling cliff with scaffolds. Im okay with it, I've got a bike and trailer to pull behind it.
Ive quit the kar hobby, divested in the entire western world mindset. Im really focusing on more cerebral energy.

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hippiewannabe
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Re: Insanity, end of the world, etc.

Post by hippiewannabe » Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:45 pm

Cool, let's have some fun.

If I can help people understand the primacy of economic principles to all discussions of politics, ecology, health care, in fact, everything that matters in society, I will be very happy. Understanding economics will make you a better environmentalist, advocate for the poor, champion of racial justice, or whatever you want to achieve.

Let's look at this:
Spezialist wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:50 pm
One question before I actually comment on the recent post.
If we have enough oil, why was shale produced in the first place?
Oh that’s right we ran out of the other stuff.
Of course. The shale oil was always there, biding its time, waiting to become economically viable. Nobody was ever going to spend $100 per barrel to extract the shale oil, until the stuff that cost $20 per barrel was gone. As it happens, the US depleted all it's cheap oil, and the industry moved to the middle east. Its cheap oil is actually still there, but the OPEC cartel was organized, and they decided to artificially restrict it, for erstwhile self interest and political reasons. When the price shot up over $100 per barrel, the rush was on.

There is another economic principle, called Wright's Law, which refers to the learning curve. As production increases, incremental improvements are made, and costs come down. The early frackers had no infrastructure, and had to invent things as they went. Now a deep industry and supply chain are in place, and costs have come way down. While it would never be here if the Saudis hadn't turned the screws on us so severely, the genie is out of the bottle, and it's not going away. While plenty of the industry players will go bankrupt, the oil is still there, and production will ramp up any time the price gets above $40.
Truth is like poetry.
And most people fucking hate poetry.

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Re: Insanity, end of the world, etc.

Post by Spezialist » Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:58 pm

Covertly he totally stepped over his own “tell” from years ago.
The doubt you expressed is so huge it even scares you today

Here, read this https://www.greenpeace.org/internationa ... s-economy/

Or unpack the realities of the population boom, that is the drain to the supply not that the earth doesn’t have oil. The fact that western capitalism depends on constant growth and spreading democracy is the key to that. It’s a bottle neck, plain and simple.
And what you say? Wars will be waged to keep the price down, and production facilities will not be built to keep up with demand.
Anyways,,,

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hippiewannabe
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Re: Insanity, end of the world, etc.

Post by hippiewannabe » Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:03 pm

Spezialist wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:58 pm
Covertly he totally stepped over his own “tell” from years ago.
The doubt you expressed is so huge it even scares you today

Here, read this https://www.greenpeace.org/internationa ... s-economy/

Or unpack the realities of the population boom, that is the drain to the supply not that the earth doesn’t have oil. The fact that western capitalism depends on constant growth and spreading democracy is the key to that. It’s a bottle neck, plain and simple.
And what you say? Wars will be waged to keep the price down, and production facilities will not be built to keep up with demand.
Anyways,,,
So you ignored that lesson to focus on things not discussed? *sigh* We'll get to the other topics. I'm as busy as ever, work-wise, and have to budget my fun time.
Truth is like poetry.
And most people fucking hate poetry.

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