Is Bob Lutz Right?

[vwlover77]

http://www.thecarconnection.com/news/11 ... n-20-years

[wcfvw69]

Nah... I don't think in 20 years but maybe 50 years when the folks who grew up driving all die off. The new generation has ambivalence in even getting their drivers license these days. There's no connection to automobiles in this newer generation. Nether my 16 YO or 20 YO boy really care about cars. They see them as a way to get somewhere and that's it.

I do think in 30-50 years most cars will be all electric and self driving for sure. I know I wouldn't want to be 18 years old today and plan a career as an over the road driver.

[Amskeptic]

http://www.thecarconnection.com/news/11 ... n-20-years

He has spotted a trend, yes, but then he runs with it for "click-bait" value.
Twenty years? Not the way we humans fitfully walk into the future then backslide.
Colin

[hippiewannabe]

http://www.thecarconnection.com/news/11 ... n-20-years

He has spotted a trend, yes, but then he runs with it for "click-bait" value.
Twenty years? Not the way we humans fitfully walk into the future then backslide.
Colin

Well, it may be a bit of hyperbole, and he certainly got the attention he hoped for. But it is happening, and it will be fun to watch it unfold. I work with car makers and technology companies, and it feels like a thundering stampede that won't be stopped. They are all convinced it's going to happen, and don't want to be left behind, so they are all racing full speed in the same direction.
A few things are clear:
- no technology breakthroughs are required, it's a matter of refinement and cost reduction
- computers, on balance, are already better drivers than humans. It might be a $5K computer today, but soon enough it will be a $100 computer
- the biggest hurdles are cultural and legal, not technical. We can reduce the number of traffic deaths significantly, but it may be tough to accept that 10,000 people are killed computers, even though that's better than 30,000 being killed by humans. The legacy automakers are obsessed with liability, based on being sued into submission over decades. The disruptors, like Google, Uber, Tesla, etc., don't know what liability is. But they'll find out.
- when you take a small segment of a curve, it looks like a straight line. That's what events look like from our perspective, but we are really riding on an exponential curve of change, and the next twenty years will change more than the last 100.

[TrollFromDownBelow]

I do love driving my bus....always brings a smile to my face, and those around me. Also love wrenching on it... I have a lot of respect for those German engineers (I've also owned a BMW and liked wrenching on it as well). However, I will become down right depressed when I can't ride on two wheels.

That said, I can see densely populated areas having "self driving only" zones (at least in the U.S.) but think (wish?) that driving between these zones can be "U drive." In the U.S. I see a lot of push back to outlawing U-drive...from camping and RV'ing, to Tourist industries. Heck. If we are in the land where one can open carry a lethal weapon, why can't we drive our own car if we choose?

[Amskeptic]

Heck. If we are in the land where one can open carry a lethal weapon, why can't we drive our own car if we choose?

Because when you punch past the posturing and the politics, there is a power struggle that dictates the perimeters of your existence.

The same cop who gives you a ticket/fine for not carrying car insurance rants against the ACA because of the individual mandate.
The same NRA that bought off Congress for easier super convenient weaponry does not allow you to carry your weapon into their lobby.

The same people who said we cannot afford to carry the school lunch program forward just blew a trillion dollar hole in the budget for their plutocratic benefactors.

You will drive your own car into the future if we LET you drive your car into the future. As of right now, the powers-that-be just told me that I cannot! use Chrome on my Windows XP desktop. It just lost useability at the last mandatory update.
Colin

[tommu]

Colin - are you using XP? Do you connect that thing to the internet?

[Jivermo]

Sure. Just like we were going to all be using the metric system “very soon”, as I was told in a 1962 high school science class. Well, I’m still measuring things in inches and feet; how about you? That was a crazy prediction, huh? Hey, hand me that 13mm wrench there, Marc.

[TrollFromDownBelow]

The same people who said we cannot afford to carry the school lunch program forward just blew a trillion dollar hole in the budget for their plutocratic benefactors.

Colin

I thought it was $1.5T

[Amskeptic]

The same people who said we cannot afford to carry the school lunch program forward just blew a trillion dollar hole in the budget for their plutocratic benefactors.

Colin

I thought it was $1.5T

For crying out loud, what's a half a trillion dollars here or there? You people.
CongressionalColinOffice

[TrollFromDownBelow]

Hey, we don't want to be accused of spreading fake news or bad facts ... gottta keep the story strait.

[Amskeptic]

Colin - are you using XP? Do you connect that thing to the internet?

Yep. Now that I have found Mozilla that is happy to offer me a portal to the world through FireFox. I also have Kaspersky Rusky Soviet AntiVirus the better which to allow my pal Putin to run amok on all of our poorly protected computers.
Товарищ Колин

[tommu]

AV is a useful control. Nothing more. XP is NLA as are it's security patches. You would be wise not to access banking websites, webmail or anything else important on that machine. And if you do then be prudent and use Multi Factor authentication. Especially for PayPal.
Upgrading Operating systems is routine maintenance that should not be avoided!
Безопасность прежде всего.

[Amskeptic]

AV is a useful control. Nothing more. XP is NLA as are it's security patches. You would be wise not to access banking websites, webmail or anything else important on that machine. And if you do then be prudent and use Multi Factor authentication. Especially for PayPal.
Upgrading Operating systems is routine maintenance that should not be avoided!
Безопасность прежде всего.

I only do financial or identity-based transactions with the laptop.

The XP desktop with the 40 gig Western Digital hard drive is used only to run the scanner, the printer, and occasional google searches for things like "what is an air-cooled Volkswagen?"

And no, you know, I am no "upgrader" when things like my camera, my phone, my car, all work fine. I like XP a whole lot more than that despicable Windows 10.
Colin
(maybe I will do Linux though)

[tommu]

I've never been a real Microsoft user, but Apple these days are not a lot better.

Windows 10 has Hyper V built in these days. You can road-test Linux as a virtual machine in Hyper V very easily. That's one windows 10 feature that I am impressed by.